Peak Rates and Pie

Market Update

Kyle Paquin


December 1, 2023

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Inventory is diving down much faster than expected. We are seeing an 11% reduction in sales from October to November. Contra Costa is down 24%! What does that mean? More listings will hit the market in spring. People are holding on for lower rates and sunnier weather.

Mortgage and Me

This section is the summary of the ongoing sitcom, “Mortgage and Me”, where you get news of what the banks are doing and how it affects us all.

Mortgage Rates: Dipping for the First Time in Months

Mortage rates jumped up and then back down to just over 7%. I felt the market holding its breath and let out a sigh of relief. We won’t have any more news on potential rate hikes until late January so we may see additional decreases until then. Many are taking the recent decreases as indication for more to come in 2024. What do you think?

Refinance Volume: Bad and Worse

High rates and holidays are tempering the public’s appetite for refinancing and even HELOCs are taking a hit. We will see a spike coming the new year after Xmas is over and the spending spree comes back into reality. Unfortunately, many homeowners use their home equity like a bank when their spending gets out of hand.

East Bay Area Market Update

Sales are falling faster than I expected in November. The market took way longer to enter into its normal seasonal slowing period than prior years. Days on Market (DOM) is actually downtrending in some areas. The median sale price is slightly up in Alameda/Contra Costa due to low inventory. Solano is now firmly dipping into seasonality. I am noticing recent listings taking lower offers to avoid keeping the homes on the market into the larger holiday season, a trend that happens every year.

East Bay Area November Yearly Trends
Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano
2022 2023 % Change
Median Price 910000 925000 1.6%
Average Price per SF 579 1126 94.5%
Number of Sales 1401 1197 -14.6%
Median DOM 21 14 -33.3%
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Need a Referral?

This is my list of local people I trust with my business needs:

Services for Agents

Pre-Listing Appraisals

With today’s market, every listing is precious. Don’t go into a sale blind, call us for a pre-listing appraisal today and say GOODBYE to the real estate grind.

Measurement Services

The county says “this” and the owner says “that.” You don’t want to get to the end of the sales process only to discover the size is quite different. For a nominal fee, any new listing can have an “Appraiser-certified” statement of Square footage [SqFt] complete with a floorplan. Give yourself and your clients peace of mind with our reliable and accurate measurement services.

Divorce/Estate Appraisals

If you have client that needs appraisal work for estate, taxation or ligation purposes, we can help! Our firm services the East Bay Area, but we have a wide network of referrals and resources available for your clients.

About the Author

My name is Kyle Paquin.

I have been a Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser since 2015 within the East San Francisco Bay Area. My firm provides expert valuations on residential properties in the region and we specialize in ADU valuation and advanced market analysis. I have a passion for teaching and appraiser education which has led me to develop instructional courses for the Real Estate Appraisers Association (REAA). I currently live in Benicia where I operate a mid-term rental ADU with my wife and child.

The divide between agents, appraisers and lenders is not healthy for our clients. I aim to bridge the gap between us all so we can serve the market with a higher level of trust, integrity and knowledge. The mission of this blog is to provide greater clarity into how the East Bay Area markets are moving on a monthly basis. If you like this work or think that it sucks, please let me know.

My contact information

Office #: 925-937-3307



Thanks for reading this market update