Rates Finally Stalling Out?

Market Update

Kyle Paquin


November 6, 2023

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More rate hikes but a surprising reslient sales volume. I am making a prediction that we will see another 10% drop each month until February. That would place us around 950 sales in our three counties. RIP Chris Farley, SNL hasn’t been the same since you left.

Mortgage and Me

This section is the summary of the ongoing sitcom, “Mortgage and Me”, where you get news of what the banks are doing and how it affects us all.

Mortgage Rates: New Records but Now in Stasis

Mortage rates set another record last month BUT the Federal Reserve Board is pumping the brakes on more rate hikes. Mid-December is their last meeting of the year until late January. Pundits and fortune tellers say that they will keep rates steady from now on and dip slightly next year. Are they right?

Refinance Volume: Loving the Low

Again-without surprise, refinance volume has further dipped with more rate hikes. The index is hovering around 350 points when 1000 points is considered historically normal. The lack of refinances are hammering the lending and appraisal worlds.

East Bay Area Market Update

Breaking the end of October, the market is in its normal seasonal slowing period. There is a slight uptick of Days on Market (DOM) and average offers dropped from an average of 2.5 to 2.0 over all markets. The median sale price is lower than last month in all counties other than Solano which is holding out longer from seasonal slowing due to its lower prices. When loans become more expensive, cheaper homes become more competitive.

East Bay Area October Yearly Trends
Alameda, Contra Costa, Solano
2022 2023 % Change
Median Price 900000 925255 2.8%
Average Price per SF 588 606 3.1%
Number of Sales 1642 1458 -11.2%
Median DOM 21 14 -33.3%
Copyright © EBValueReport.com

Need a Referral?

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Services for Agents

Pre-Listing Appraisals

With today’s market, every listing is precious. Don’t go into a sale blind, call us for a pre-listing appraisal today and say GOODBYE to the real estate grind.

Measurement Services

The county says “this” and the owner says “that.” You don’t want to get to the end of the sales process only to discover the size is quite different. For a nominal fee, any new listing can have an “Appraiser-certified” statement of Square footage [SqFt] complete with a floorplan. Give yourself and your clients peace of mind with our reliable and accurate measurement services.

Divorce/Estate Appraisals

If you have client that needs appraisal work for estate, taxation or ligation purposes, we can help! Our firm services the East Bay Area, but we have a wide network of referrals and resources available for your clients.

About the Author

My name is Kyle Paquin.

I have been a Certified Residential Real Estate Appraiser since 2015 within the East San Francisco Bay Area. My firm provides expert valuations on residential properties in the region and we specialize in ADU valuation and advanced market analysis. I have a passion for teaching and appraiser education which has led me to develop instructional courses for the Real Estate Appraisers Association (REAA). I currently live in Benicia where I operate a mid-term rental ADU with my wife and child.

The divide between agents, appraisers and lenders is not healthy for our clients. I aim to bridge the gap between us all so we can serve the market with a higher level of trust, integrity and knowledge. The mission of this blog is to provide greater clarity into how the East Bay Area markets are moving on a monthly basis. If you like this work or think that it sucks, please let me know.

My contact information

Office #: 925-937-3307

Email: office@valuableappraisal.com

Website: https://www.valuableappraisal.com/

Thanks for reading this market update